A significant rain and wind storm is on the way with windswept heavy rainfall producing the potential for flash flooding, poor visibility, and power outages.

As a cold front with a wave of low pressure approaches the region tomorrow evening, rainfall will start to break out after 6 PM and become widespread throughout the region after 8 PM.  The rain will become heavy at times through the evening hours into Wednesday morning.  Along with the heavy rainfall, winds will increase throughout the region.  However, the worst conditions can be expected from the Delaware River on to the east through southern New England.

 

So here is basically what I'm expecting.

 

For locations along the immediate New Jersey coast, New York City metropolitan area, Long Island, and Connecticut expect heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts of 1" to 3", a sustained wind of 15 t0 30 mph, and wind gusts of 30 to 60 mph from the hours of 8 PM Tuesday to 10 AM Wednesday.  Urban flooding, power outages, wind damage, and visibility below 2 miles can be expected.

 

For locations just inland from the New Jersey coast to the Delaware River including the Hudson River Valley and the Catskills expect heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts of 1" to 2", a sustained wind of 10 to 20 mph, and wind gusts of 20 mph to 40 mph from the hours of 8 PM Tuesday to 10 AM Wednesday.  Urban flooding, power outages, minor wind damage, and visibility below 2 miles at times can be expected.

 

Finally, for locations to the west of the Delaware River including the western suburbs of Philadelphia and the Poconos, expect rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 1.00", a sustained wind of 5 to 15 mph, and wind gusts up 30 mph at times from the hours of 8 PM Tuesday to 8 AM Wednesday.

 

After the low-pressure system lifts north and the cold front clears the region late on Wednesday morning, skies will clear on Wednesday afternoon on through Thursday.  I can't rule out an isolated shower, but drier weather conditions can be expected.

 

For details on the lifting parameters, please visit the Premium Discussion detailing these factors.