Grace has made landfall this morning on the northern Yucatan Peninsula as a category one hurricane with intense rainfall and sustained winds of 80 mph and gusts up to 100 mph.  Grace has already produced significant coastal flooding, wind damage, and significant flooding. 

Grace will continue to move through the Yucatan Peninsula today and will weaken back into a tropical storm but will have the chance to intensify back into a hurricane while moving due west through the Southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.

The 500 MB pattern is expected to feature a ridge to build to the north of Grace tomorrow through Saturday, which would force Grace to track to the west and into the central Mexican coast.  All guidance currently supports this aspect of the forecast and confidence is high on the track.  What is still in question is just how strong Grace could become before the landfall on the central Mexican coast.

Tropical Storm Henri has become a complicated forecasting question over the past 24 hours as the question of just how strong Henri will get between today through Friday.  The GFS solutions which are generally further west, feature a stronger storm that features a major hurricane status while the ECMWF solutions are further to the east as Henri is forecasted to be weaker, around tropical storm strength.  This question will likely be answered by recon observations that are expected this afternoon. 

However, right now I would lean towards a weaker solution than any of the GFS guidance has been suggesting given the current state of Henri.  Henri is battling dry air and northerly shear with a poor convective structure around the low-level center.  The low-level center is south of the bulk of the convection this morning and features a suppressed outflow pattern.  

As Henri moves to the west, the storm will fall under the influence of the developing trough over the Eastern United States and the upper-level low forming over the Ohio River Valley by tomorrow night.  This trough will initially be in a positive orientation and thus feature strong south to southwesterly mid and upper-level winds that will turn Henri to the north and produce strong vertical wind shear.  While Henri will be moving over the Gulf Stream, which will support some strengthening, the vertical wind shear should cap the potential of this strengthening to a category 1, maybe category 2 hurricane at most.  The storm should move quickly to the north at first and by Sunday will be approaching the coastal waters of eastern New England.  Given the data at hand right now, I expect eastern New England to be at the highest threat for impact and not the northern Mid Atlantic, including Long Island.  This forecast would shift west if Henri manages to strengthen above the current forecast.  Basically, if Henri reaches category 3 strength, then the New Jersey coast and Long Island will be at threat, but I don't see that happening based on all available data.